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Weighted Odds: FY2027’s High-Stakes H-1B Lottery

Following the Department of Homeland Security’s finalization of its weighted H-1B cap selection rule on December 29, 2025, the Fiscal Year 2027 H-1B registration period became the first “cap season” conducted entirely under the new weighted process. 

The new process requires employers to provide additional details regarding the specialty occupation role, including its wage level, job category (SOC Code), and work locations. Registrations are then weighted as follows for the regular and advanced degree lottery systems:  

 Wage Level  Number of Lottery Submissions
 IOne (1)
 IITwo (2)
 IIIThree (3)
 IVFour (4)

The final choices were made by random computer selection and did not permit an individual registration to be selected more than once. Weighted selection will have a lasting impact for employers, intensifying the challenge of securing work authorization for entry level employees. As such, the update will alter career opportunities for foreign students, as well as prompted employers with critical needs to increase wages.

On July 17, 2026, USCIS announced its receipt of enough petitions to meet the congressional mandated H-1B visa cap for FY2027 but has not yet released detailed data on selection rates to determine the full impact of this new weighted lottery process. 

In preparation for the next H-1B selection process, Barnes & Thornburg urges employers to consult with immigration counsel to strategically identify H-1B registrants. The H-1B remains a necessary method for the temporary employment of foreign national employees. More than ever, it requires a thoughtful, strategic approach, including contingency planning for foreign nationals ultimately not selected through the lottery. Thorough candidate assessments conducted in partnership with immigration experts will highlight concerns and selection likelihood based upon the latest changes to the H-1B visa category. 

For more information, please refer to the prior article published by Barnes & Thornburg. For additional information on the methodology of the weighted selection process, please see the Barnes & Thornburg  alert issued during the comment period of this rule.

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immigration, labor and employment